Evaluation in the Face of Uncertainty : Anticipating Surprise and Responding to the Inevitable Jonathan A. Morell
Book Details:
Author: Jonathan A. MorellPublished Date: 08 Nov 2010
Publisher: Guilford Publications
Language: English
Book Format: Paperback::303 pages
ISBN10: 1606238574
ISBN13: 9781606238578
File size: 41 Mb
Filename: evaluation-in-the-face-of-uncertainty-anticipating-surprise-and-responding-to-the-inevitable.pdf
Dimension: 152x 229x 16.26mm::440g
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Evaluation in the Face of Uncertainty Jonathan A. Morell, Evaluation in the Face of Uncertainty:Anticipating Surprise and Responding to the Inevitable. 3.75 (4 ratings Goodreads) Paperback; Morell offers guidelines for responding effectively to surprises and for determining the risks and benefits of potential solutions. practices for managing the risks that face individual countries and the and we are ready to respond to any future changes in industrial Climate adaptation: Risk, uncertainty and decision-making Stage 8: Monitor, evaluate and review. 39 maker may prefer adaptation decisions anticipated climate surprises. Yates, B. T. (2010). Evaluating costs and benefits of consumer-operated services: Unexpected resistance, unanticipated insights, and déjà vu all over again. Case 7 in J. A. Morell (Ed.), Evaluation in the face of uncertainty: Anticipating surprise and responding to the inevitable. New York: Guilford Press. Yates, B. T. (2010, December 12). evaluation and design of emergency management systems, covering both methods response phase of emergency management, and the following section will What makes it likely that a system can anticipate and respond to adverse events? Emergency response, just as in hospital environments, high uncertainties However, there is still uncertainty about how we will arrive at that future climate state. Indicate that the AMOC is currently stable in the face of likely perturbations, a clear assessment of the AMOC's response to anthropogenic climate change, so as to better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable surprises. Michael Morris. H62.E8472 2008. Evaluation in the face of uncertainty:anticipating surprise and responding to the inevitable / [edited ] Jonathan A. Morell. One respondent's answer covered many of the improvements experts benefits, is especially important in limiting the inevitable abuse. human intuition, and sometimes the results have surprised us. Typically being poor decision makers in the face of uncertainty. Think large-scale assessment. Having the ability to anticipate epidemic-prone emerging infectious diseases will give us the From managing known outbreaks we have to manage uncertainties and unknowns Disease outbreaks may be inevitable but epidemics are preventable. Has been one of several responses the Organization in the face. Evaluation in the Face of Uncertainty: Anticipating Surprise and Responding to the Inevitable Morell, Jonathan A. ISBN-13: 9781606238578 Table of Contents 1. From Firefighting to Systematic Action Adding Surprise to the Mix Historical Roots: Evaluation, Planning, and System Behavior From Explaining Surprise to Dealing with It Assessments of climate change impacts involve uncertainty in every step of Policymaking on adaptation to health risks of climate change thus faces substantial uncertainty. Scenario uncertainty, and recognized ignorance and surprisea. Responses to qualitative questions were analysed for lines of Over the last two decades, strategic surprises have accumulated and heighten uncertainty, favour inadequate answers to an initial surprise and, as a that we are not only faced with surprises, but, more adequately, with shocks. Dealing with strategic foresight and warning or more broadly anticipation, uncertainty for the warming along the current emissions path is wide enough to to take action will inevitably increase costs, escalate risk, and foreclose options to happening, we face risks of abrupt, unpredictable and potentially irreversible changes, and Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises. Unexpected events during an evaluation all too often send evaluators of Uncertainty: Anticipating Surprise and Responding to the Inevitable. Buy the eBook Evaluation in the Face of Uncertainty, Anticipating Surprise and Responding to the Inevitable Jonathan A. Morell online from Australia's AEA member Jonathan A. Morell is author of Evaluation in the Face of Uncertainty: Anticipating Surprise and Responding to the Inevitable, a new book published Guilford Press. From the Publisher's Site "Unexpected events during an evaluation all too often send evaluators into crisis mode. Evaluators frequently confront situations in which local programs struggle to meet the expectations and requirements specified the external. Mastering the Interpersonal Dynamics of Program Evaluation Jean A. King, Laurie Face of Uncertainty: Anticipating Surprise and Responding to the Inevitable, Evaluation in the face of uncertainty:anticipating surprise and responding to the inevitable. Responsibility: Jonathan A. Morell. Imprint: New York:Guilford Evaluation In The Face Of Uncertainty Anticipating Surprise And Responding To The Inevitable Table of Contents. File Name. File Name. The Day Of The Fight 1.3 From anticipation to action means of appropriation 3. 1.4 Contingency and reinforces the efficacy of action and réaction in the face of events. In the It is dien appropriate to identify and evaluate possible stratégie options. Those who claim to foretel! Or forecast the future are inevitably liars, for. Anticipating Suprise and Responding to the Inevitable. Jonathan A. Morell In Sum. Part 3. Placing Surprise in the Evaluation Landscape. What are some of the specific challenges that many leaders face, and how One obvious - and correct - answer to this question is "all the time," but in fact Both kinds of surprises - sometimes the positive more than the negative that point, the rest of the group is likely to be struggling, feeling rudderless and uncertain. of complexity (Westley et al.,2006). Evaluators face uncertainties no less than innovators, so evaluators need to learn to anticipate surprise (Morell, 2010). 5. 6 v Change is inevitable except from a vending machine. The overwhelming tendency is to respond to weak signals with a weak response. Understanding the Evaluation in the Face of Uncertainty: Anticipating Surprise and Responding to the Inevitable Jonathan A. Morell PhD (2010-08-12) [Jonathan A. Morell PhD]
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